Obama Administration May Support Somali Faction

As al Shabab (the al Qaeda franchise in Somalia) expands its operations into Yemen (a short boat ride across the Gulf of Aden), elsewhere in the Middle East, East Africa and Western Europe, the Obama administration is desperately seeking a means by which it can negate the group's growing audacity, aggressiveness, technical expertise and operational capabilities.

Terrorism and Intelligence Blog sources say President Obama favors the proxy approach supported by limited direct action by U.S. military assets including air strikes and special operations.

The White House is nearing a decision to provide support to al Shabab's mortal enemy, the Ahlu Sunna Waljama'a, which is vehemently opposed to Sharia Law, al Qaeda, radical Islamic fundamentalism, and jihad against anyone not in favor of Sharia. Ahlu Sunna Waljama'a has been in pitched and protracted battles with al Shabab and has shown signs of promise, which has led some of President Obama's advisors to recommend arming, training and otherwise supporting the group in a textbook example of asymmetric warfare via the employment of regional factional proxies.

Future Terrorists

Here is a link to my hit on FOX News regarding future terrorists:

http://video.foxnews.com/12909187/future-terrorists

Israeli Defense Update

Delivery to Israel of GBU-39s and 28s (both bunker busters meant for use against Iran's nuke and missile sites) is complete. The F-15I will be the primary aircraft in preemptive strikes on Iran and is the only platform in Israel's inventory that can deliver the GBU-28.

The IDF has ramped up training of air crews and some security/defense enhancements at Dimona (Israel's nuke center) have been detected. Civil defense training has been increased all over Israel. Israel has also deployed a submarine and a remarkable new intelligence and attack RPV (Remotely Piloted Vessel) called the "Death Shark" to the Persian Gulf, which can be used for many missions including destroying Iran's mini-subs, which they purchased from North Korea.

Israel believes Iran will field a deployable nuclear warhead this year. They will not allow that warhead to be fielded.

Terrorism Hot Spots in 2010

Expect significant counterterrorism activity in the following countries/regions in 2010:

The southern Philippines, especially on the islands of Mindanao, Jolo and Basilan; the U.K.; Western Europe, especially in Denmark, Netherlands, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Germany and France; Venezuela; Mexico; Nigeria and elsewhere in West Equatorial Africa; East Equatorial Africa; the Horn of Africa; Indonesia; Thailand; Pakistan; Afghanistan; India; the Balkans; Chechnya; Russia.

Iran will likely be attacked by Israel unless Ahmadinejad and the ayatollahs are overthrown. Also expect Israel to hit Syria, Gaza and Lebanon when they attack Iran. Watch for Israeli maritime strikes in the Persian Gulf to accompany the air strikes and be ready for Hezbollah "Fifth Column" counterattacks in the U.S., Europe, Middle East, and possibly South America.

FOX News Appearance on NWA Attempted Bombing

Below is a link to my appearance on FOX News during which I analyzed the attempted al Qaeda bombing of NWA flight 253:

http://video.foxnews.com/v/3957609/cause-for-alarm

Yemen Warning Rationale

President Obama's closest advisors and pollsters have let him know in blunt terms that the NWA terrorist and how the administration botched their reaction (they are furious with Secretary of Homeland Security Napolitano and a White House source says Obama has discussed the pros and cons of firing her with his aides) did considerable harm to Obama, so much so that the GOP has already had strategy sessions on how to use this embarrassment against the Dems and Obama.

With his polls in free fall, President Obama is watching his political cache vanish and big losses this year in November will mean big trouble for him in 2012. He has decided to try to appear to be more of a wartime president and avoid using weak language and making false statements as he did when first describing the attack, and he believes Yemen now offers him a way to actually look like a serious commander in chief who accepts that there are such things as terrorists after all.

Yemen President Gets Warning From Obama Administration

A plainly threatening message from President Obama has been delivered to the president of Yemen, who is a slippery character and our current "friend" only because he is not as problematic as he could be and he understands the precarious situation he could be in if we chose to play this hand differently.

Pres. Ali Saleh has been told that he will -- WILL -- go along with every facet of our war plans in Yemen or he WILL find himself in huge political trouble at home and likely out of a job or worse. He was briefed on the overall plan (with, of course, no hard operational details) and had better support it with no shenanigans or else.

In situations like this, when we are waving a large stick at him that we have promised to club him with if he does not accept the carrot and eat it with a smile, we dedicate tremendous intel assets to monitor nearly every word he utters or writes. One of the things we have told him is that we know about all the dirty deals he has made and all the money he has stolen from his country's coffers, and if he does not play nice, that info will "leak" and his money will vanish (we know where a lot of it is). If we even think he is trying to double-cross us or do an end-around, he has been told of the most grim of consequences.

The biggest ax we are holding over his head? We know he knew about the USS Cole hit in the planning phase.

Large DoD wheels are already turning on this new front on the GWOT.